Case Study · Confirmed Prediction · Colorectal Cancer
GaiaLab Identified Dabrafenib for BRAF V600E Colorectal Cancer — Confirmed by 5 Clinical Trials
A documented prediction from the GaiaLab ledger, cross-referenced against ClinicalTrials.gov. Real data, real timestamps, real trials.
Honest baseline: This is a confirmed prediction — GaiaLab predicted Dabrafenib for colorectal cancer and ClinicalTrials.gov independently has 5 matching trials. We do not currently have verified proof that GaiaLab predicted this before any specific trial was registered. That prospective tracking is being built. What is unambiguously true is on this page.
5
ClinicalTrials.gov trials confirming this direction
0.7469
AUROC for colorectal cancer (vs 0.50 random)
92.6%
CRC trial match rate — 677 of 731 predictions
Feb 23
Prediction recorded in GaiaLab ledger (2026)
Scientific Reasoning
What GaiaLab Found
The analysis connected BRAF V600E mutation to downstream MAPK pathway dysregulation and identified Dabrafenib — a selective BRAF inhibitor — as the top mechanistically coherent candidate. Inference chain:
Inference chain — Feb 23 2026 analysis
1
BRAF V600E mutation detected — constitutively active BRAF kinase. V600E accounts for ~8–10% of colorectal cancer cases and is associated with poor prognosis in MMR-proficient disease.
2
MAPK pathway hyperactivation — BRAF V600E drives MEK/ERK signaling independent of RAS, creating a targetable dependency distinct from KRAS-driven CRC.
3
Dabrafenib scored Tier I candidate — BRAF inhibitor with established clinical evidence in melanoma and NSCLC (V600E). Colorectal context noted with feedback reactivation caveat; combination with cetuximab highlighted.
4
Confidence: 80% — driven by target-in-panel match, cross-indication BRAF V600E evidence, pathway coherence, and 6 PubMed citations at analysis time.
Clinical Validation
Confirmed Trials on ClinicalTrials.gov
GaiaLab's automated ledger cross-referenced this prediction against ClinicalTrials.gov and found 5 matching trials for Dabrafenib in colorectal cancer:
NCT03668431
BRAF-targeted therapy in colorectal cancer
NCT01750918
Dabrafenib in BRAF-mutated solid tumors including CRC
NCT06967155
BRAF inhibitor combination in colorectal cancer
NCT06978400
Dabrafenib-based regimen in colorectal cancer
Accuracy Context
How Accurate Is GaiaLab for Colorectal Cancer?
This case is not cherry-picked. Full population-level performance for colorectal cancer in the GaiaLab ledger:
0.7469
AUROC — colorectal cancer
vs 0.50 random baseline. Evaluated on 731 predictions against ClinicalTrials.gov completed trials.
92.6%
Match rate — 677 of 731 CRC predictions confirmed in trials
Match = GaiaLab drug appears in at least one registered trial for the same disease.
Full calibration curve and per-disease AUROC: validation page →
What We're Building Next
Prospective Validation — In Progress
We are building genuine prospective validation: predictions timestamped before a trial registers. The infrastructure is live — every new analysis is recorded with a timestamp and automatically checked against ClinicalTrials.gov weekly. As trial registration dates are captured for new predictions, this page will be updated with verified prospective cases.
Current limitation: The trial registration dates for the 5 confirmed trials above were not captured at prediction time. We therefore cannot confirm that this specific prediction preceded any of these specific trial registrations. We will not claim that until the data proves it.
GaiaLab predictions are computational hypotheses grounded in public literature and pathway data. They are not medical advice. The 80% confidence score reflects the strength of computational evidence at analysis time, not the probability of clinical success.
Run your own colorectal cancer analysis
Submit the BRAF/CRC gene panel and see the same analysis pipeline in real time — with live data from 40 biological databases.
Run colorectal cancer analysis →